Good morning. Underwater solar power? Sure, why not. Scientists have successfully harnessed submarine solar cells (placed 32 feet underwater) to charge lithium batteries. These special cells could run for over five years, and could power underwater sensors and communications systems—perhaps they could charge scuba divers’ phones, too? 🤿

— Molly, Carrie, and the Energy Central editorial team

Utilities around the country are scrambling to build the infrastructure required to serve growing large-load demand. That’s why public power utilities and co-ops projected hundreds of millions in capital spending in 2025. But their expectations didn’t match the financial reality.

Spending shortfalls: Wholesale systems’ 2025 capex fell about 15% below forecasts, reaching roughly $350M on average, according to data analyzed by Fitch Ratings. Why? This “reflects management conservatism in a rapidly changing cost environment,” according to Fitch, along with the tight supply chain for generation equipment.

“Capital plans tend to be optimistic about how quickly projects can actually be executed,” Margarita Patria, an energy economist at consulting firm Charles River Associates, told Energy Central.

What’s next: Public power utilities and co-ops are shifting their capex peaks later and higher—these orgs predict capex growth of 24% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, before declining by 5% in 2028. 

The scale of this spending falls far below that of investor-owned utilities—whose total capex is predicted to hit $239B in 2026 alone, compared with $88B in projected capex for co-ops over the next decade. But the recent underspending reveals how smaller orgs are adjusting to massive load growth (and procurement challenges).

“We think that these aggregated estimates do a good job of illustrating what we are hearing when we speak with many of our issuers,” report co-author Patrick Goggins, director in public finance at Fitch Ratings, told us. They “expect this recent surge in capital spending to continue, and are actively working to position their utilities to address the expected increase” by, for example, raising rates and upping energy sales.

The prognosis: Supply chain constraints probably won’t ease up for several years…which begs the question: Is a 2026 capex peak even possible? It’s “quite plausible” to see additional years of below-prediction spending, Patria said. “I would expect some continued slippage, especially if equipment bottlenecks persist or rate affordability limits how quickly utilities can recover higher costs.” 

The risk: Even if these utilities do manage to amass lots of new generation and transmission infrastructure in the years ahead, they could end up building for large loads that don’t show up. This could risk their credit quality, the report noted.

But, according to Patria, that’s unlikely: “The current concern about overbuilding is somewhat overhyped,” she said. Utilities and state commissions have “become very attuned” to this risk, and are increasingly harnessing ratepayer protections like minimum-payment requirements for large loads.

One option for more electrons: If the costs of constructing new generation continue to rise, utilities could look to data centers themselves for power—Patria predicts that behind-the-meter generation could “eventually become attractive to utilities once it has been operating for several years and is partially depreciated,” she said. “It may make economic sense for utilities to acquire existing assets later rather than compete to build everything themselves today.” How’s that for an Uno reverse card?

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now!

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