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Happy Tax Day. On Monday, we picked your brains RE: renewables outpacing natural gas generation last month. The results? 36% of Daily readers said this trend will stick, 29% said it’s unclear, and 35% are doubtful. The lack of agreement isn’t surprising—everything from the Iran conflict, White House yo-yoing, and a clogged grid make our energy future tricky to predict. 🔮

One reader said: “The faster deployment times for renewables will continue to improve, thus extending this trend. Robotic installation assistance will likely expand going forward.

Another POV: “There was a trend because of the support of the federal government. With many incentives and general support on the back foot, it is hard to say if the momentum will continue.

— Molly, Alex, and the Energy Central editorial team

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IOUs plan to spend over $1.4T on capex through 2030. (PowerLines)

  • By the numbers: This figure (from 51 IOU earnings calls) marks a >20% increase from last year’s five-year outlook. Residential customers could foot the bill for over $700B of the planned spending (if historic cost-allocation patterns hold), a new PowerLines report estimated.  

  • Where all the money’s going: Of the roughly $1T in disclosed spending breakdowns, around 49% is slated for T&D and nearly 30% for generation. The most common drivers? Data centers and load growth, grid hardening for extreme weather, and aging infrastructure.

  • The big spenders: The South accounts for the largest share ($572B). And the 10 highest-spending utilities represent $707B, or just over half of all proposed five-year capex.

CBP is finally sending refunds for President Trump’s (now invalid) global tariffs. (Solar Power World)

  • CBP is launching an online tool to handle certain IEEPA duty refunds, including interest, without forcing companies through an entry-by-entry slog.

  • Why it matters: This could offer significant cash injections for importers across the energy supply chain. But the floodgates aren’t opening all at once. The first phase—which launches April 20—only covers certain unliquidated entries, and some within 80 days of liquidation. 

Washington keeps working to unclog the nuclear pipeline. 🪠

  • On the fission side, the NRC issued streamlined NEPA rules to support a broader efficiency push. 

  • On the fusion side, Inertia made a deal with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to commercialize the fledgling energy source. One of the biggest public-private partnerships in US national lab history, the partnership gives Inertia access to nearly 200 fusion-related patents and direct collaboration with lab staff.

Geothermal is heating up across the country.

  • In California, XGS Energy inked an agreement with California Community Power (which serves >2.7M customers) for a 115-MW next-gen geothermal project. It’s the latest move in XGS’s Western expansion, and the company hopes to crack open more of the state’s hot rock resources.

  • In Pennsylvania, DOE announced a $14M pilot project to turn a horizontal shale gas well into an enhanced geothermal test site. The goal? To show that geothermal can work in the Eastern US thanks in part to oil & gas industry know-how.

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Despite a warm Western winter, hydro forecasts are up this year.

  • EIA expects US hydropower generation to rise 5% this year, reaching 259 BkWh. The main driver? Stronger output in the Northwest and Rockies, where generation is forecast to jump 17% from 2025. Still, the West’s record-high winter temps and “snow drought” will likely keep the country’s hydro generation below the 10-year average.

  • While we’re here: FERC just greenlit the market rules for the 1.25-GW Champlain Hudson Power Express, a $6B transmission line set to send Hydro-Québec hydro to NYC beginning in May. It’ll deliver 10.4 TWh/yr under a 25-year contract with NYSERDA. 

Here’s where utility bill relief is building:

  • In Illinois, a 2021 law meant to buoy nuclear plants is now giving ComEd money back (thanks to upped federal subsidies + higher market prices). Since 2022, the program has produced more than $1.8B in net benefits for ratepayers.

  • And in Maryland, lawmakers passed a package expected to cut residential electric and gas bills by over $150/yr. That’s thanks to a mix of direct relief, tighter utility cost controls, and a wider large load definition. 

The UK thinks amped-up household energy use can lower customer costs. (The Guardian)

  • Keep calm and turn it on: This summer, the National Energy System Operator will nudge consumers to run large-load appliances and charge EVs when the grid has excess wind and solar power. Energy suppliers can pitch in with free (or steeply discounted) electricity over these spurts.

  • Why now? Britain just set fresh solar and wind records, and this summer could bring the UK grid’s first stretches of fully zero-carbon power. This summer, the strategy could prevent transmission bottlenecks from sparking blackouts.

Span wants to turn homes into tiny AI data centers. (Latitude Media)

  • Later this year, the smart panel company plans to test its mini distributed compute system (XFRA Node) in 100 new homes, pairing each module with Span’s panel and a whole-home battery system. The idea: Run AI workloads with spare electrical capacity, then stitch thousands of those nodes together via software.

  • Why it matters: Span claims the setup is cheaper and quicker than building a massive new data center, and it could save ratepayers money. But it’s unclear if hyperscalers (or homeowners) will trust the arrangement.

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